International trends

   From August 5-7, 2024, Our company was invited to attend the Xiamen International Ethanol Industry Conference, and actively carried out dialogues with various producers, trading companies and research institutions to grasp the market dynamics in real time and analyze the future market trend.

   Supply side: Limited volatility in edible and industrial ethanol production is expected next week. Grain ethanol production is expected to increase slightly in the short term. Cassava ethanol production is expected to be stable in the short term, there is no installation arrangement, Changxing has a medium-term recovery probability, and the specific time has not been determined in the short term. Molasses ethanol is expected to be stable in the short term, and Yunnan production enterprises have no plans to start up in the short term. Industrial ethanol production may be stable. The plants in Henan, Shaanxi, Anhui and Hunan are running smoothly, and the Tianye plant in Xinjiang will enter the test state, which will have an impact on the medium-term market supply, and the fuel ethanol production is expected to increase in the near future.

    Demand: short-term demand is expected to be flat, and the downstream is based on the just-needed replenishment. Recent downstream start-stop rhythm staggered, the overall demand is still in the off-season. There is a long downstream shutdown in the early stage, the appropriate amount of procurement for the resumption of production in the middle and late months, and there are also downstream due to the current off-season, the current load continues to be low.

    Cost: in terms of corn, the main producing areas trade link shipment is positive, downstream deep processing and feed enterprises purchase intention is not high, inventory slightly decreased, loose supply and demand, short-term corn prices or still have a narrow range of room to fall. Northeast traders inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years, is expected to remain short-term shipment demand, deep processing enterprises acquisition willingness or difficult to improve, feed companies to maintain a small amount of procurement, is expected to short-term market supply or relatively loose, Northeast corn prices or slightly down 10-20 yuan/ton. In most areas of North China, the trade link inventory is still large, traders continue to ship, and spring corn has been listed, and the supply of corn is still sufficient; Downstream enterprises are mainly rolling replenishment, and the purchase volume is difficult to increase, and the price of corn in North China is expected to fall by about 20 yuan/ton in the short term. Affected by falling prices in producing areas, the arrival cost of corn in southern selling areas will continue to fall in the short term or continue to fall in producing areas, and it is expected to fall by about 20 yuan/ton. For dried cassava, the price may be stable. The supply of foreign raw materials is general, the new dry slices are suspended from the market, and the inventory is mainly sold in the blueprinting field. Recent exchange rate performance is OK, bullish appetite remains. Due to the demand in China has not improved, the market inquiry price is not much, basically no transaction, under the comprehensive impact, the quotation of the farm is temporarily stable. China's downstream start to maintain a low level, production consumption in the early inventory, the recent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, later inquiries or increase. Because the demand is still in the off-season, just need to replenish the main, short-term cassava dry price or temporary stable operation